Innlegg

Let's talk about the non-farm payroll data. I was stunned after reading it and couldn't say a word for a while. -23,000, the expectation was +80,000, a difference of 100,000. The data for May and June was also revised down by a total of 103,000. The previous two months were revised down by 100,000, and this month it directly turned negative. Honestly, the cooling speed of the job market is quite fierce. (The power of capital is still too strong) But what's even more contradictory is the unemployment rate, which dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Employment is contracting, but the unemployment rate is falling. These two data points together indicate mixed signals. Wage growth also slowed, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%. After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 50% to about 44%. The market thinks the Fed can't raise rates anymore. Then the market reaction was very interesting—not a broad rally, but a split. $XAU broke through $4370, futures closed at $4399.7, standing above the $4400 mark. Weak employment → rate hike cooling → weak dollar → gold rises, this chain makes perfect sense. I've been watching $SPCX these past two days. It rose 6% on the unlock day, then surged 15.83% after the non-farm data, closing at $133.11. It climbed from around $105 to $133, a cumulative increase of about 23% over two days. The unlock bearishness has been digested, shorts are covering, and rate cut expectations are pushing it up. The rise is too strong, and I'm the happiest 😂 SanDisk $SNDK plunged from 1326 to around 1200 last night, closing down 3.68%. Weak non-farm data → lower rate hike expectations → high valuation growth stocks should benefit, but SanDisk was hit instead. Previously, despite earnings #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound