FED just cut rates to 4%
Most think it means altseason, but that's wrong
I analyzed 20 years of macro, credit flow and BTC cycles
Here's how rate cuts works and what it means for crypto👇🧵
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The Fed rate cut has become one of the key events for global markets
Moves like this usually set up long-term growth, not instant pumps
Crypto’s reaction depends not only on the rate itself but on how capital behaves afterward
That’s why it’s crucial to understand the mechanics, not just follow market emotions
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Lower rates make money cheaper for banks, funds and corporations
This increases their willingness to take on risk
But large institutions don’t invest immediately
They first reassess existing portfolios and evaluate new opportunities
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Historically, capital first flows into more predictable assets
The stock market gets the first impulse since it’s the easiest to enter
Crypto follows later
Meaning crypto is the second wave of reaction to rate cuts
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2021 perfectly showed this pattern
Crypto didn’t start growing until after multiple cuts - no major reaction before that
And not all crypto pumped - only $BTC did at first
It’s the main asset for institutions and only after it rallies the rest of the market follows
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So a rate cut is not a signal to ape into alts
It’s a signal that a new phase of capital rotation has begun
The more confirmation that rates will keep dropping - the stronger the incentive for big capital to move
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It’s not the rate cut itself that moves markets but the liquidity that follows
Liquidity creates cycles - sentiment or headlines without capital won’t drive price
The more liquidity there is, the more efficiently price action moves
When liquidity dries up, uncertainty takes over the market
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$BTC doesn’t moon right away - it often dips for a while after the announcement
That’s when funds start reallocating capital and preparing for new inflows
Important: they don’t ape in on the news itself
They move only once stability returns after the event
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Alts only start moving when $BTC begins to overheat
At that point traders are deep in greed territory and FOMO over missing the $BTC run
By then the rate decision won’t matter much
Once liquidity enters the market - it stays until the end of the cycle
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So it’s clear that an altseason right after a cut is unrealistic
Capital will reach that sector last
The crowd and the media want to believe it happens sooner
But smart money plays by completely different patterns
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A rate cut signals new growth - but no one promised it would be instant
Big capital doesn’t move as fast as retail would like
Altseason is one of the final liquidity phases
Focus on the opportunities that exist now, plan for future ones - but don’t lose yourself in the noise
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