What is the difference between a novice and an experienced trader?
Novice: I feel like it's about time, I think there's at most one more wave, I feel it's at the top, I think it can go to 150,000;
Experienced trader: I feel like it's about time (gradually selling to take profits and exit without looking), I think there's at most one more wave (setting stop-loss and waiting for the preset target), I feel it's at the top (selling, waiting for validation, waiting for evidence), I think it can go to 150,000 (holding steadily, waiting for validation, waiting for evidence);
The difference between the two is the difference between making money and not making money, and in this market, being able to make money and not being able to make money is the biggest difference.
The first pullback that the public can feel in a bull market is generally an opportunity to buy on the short term, with a low probability of being trapped;
The rise in a bull market is an opportunity for gradual profit-taking, not for shorting. This type of profit-taking is considered left-side profit-taking, and after taking profits, one must endure the anxiety of missing out;
I believe the current sentiment is just reaching its peak, but making a top is a process, not a single point. There are still many opportunities in this process, but the corresponding risks have also increased;
The technical top gradually emerges during the process of reaching the sentiment top, and it hasn't emerged yet;
As for the policy top, I'm not particularly professional, but I know that Trump has just approved the entry of 401K into cryptocurrency, which is a long-term positive (similar to the approval of ETFs, which will lead to a continuous influx of funds), rather than a positive that turns into a negative after implementation. However, it doesn't have much impact on the short-term market.
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