This an excellent debate to watch to understand the two opposite views on $MSTR
Jim Chanos has been short MSTR / long BTC since December because he thinks the premium to NAV should contract (to 1X?).
Pierre Rochard explains that it's normal for MSTR to trade at a premium, and that the equilibrium mNAV should necessarily be higher than 1.
I very much agree with Pierre and I think his opinion is better articulated than Chanos' one, who needs to use irrational/irrealistic assumptions to make his points.
(For his defense, Chanos is the one who has a public trade going on.)
I also agree with Pierre that Chanos seems to be closing his eyes on the main factor that makes MSTR move hard, which is always BTC moving up. This means that "the proliferation of crypto treasury companies" could affect the mNAV premium downwards, but by also leading to significant inflows into BTC, the overall effect is more likely to be bullish for MSTR.
There is a time and place for opening the short MSTR / long BTC spread trade, and that is on the volatility spikes / gamma squeezes, just like in November 2024.
Is it a good time to remain in the trade now ? I don't think so.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies often trade at a multiple of their bitcoin held, is this another Wall Street bubble or are there strong fundamentals?
It was an honor to debate the legendary short-seller @RealJimChanos on this question, moderated by @PrestonPysh for @TIP_Network. Give it a listen and let us know what you think!
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