Trade Deregulation + Institutional Inflows: Can BTC Reach a New High of $150,000?

Bitcoin once again broke through the $100,000 mark, reigniting the enthusiasm of investors and newbies. Over the past week, the BTC price has soared from about $88,000 to around $100,000, driven not only by traditional catalysts such as ETF inflows and Fed policy, but also by Trump's new trade deal with the UK, which he said "could be the first of many." Macroeconomic clarity and geopolitical optimism have breathed new life into the cryptocurrency market.

In this article, we'll unravel:

• Why Trump's Trade Deal Is So Important for Bitcoin and the Broader Market
• Briefly explains the technology roadmap for $100,000 and above
• Fundamental Drivers: Fed Policy, Trade Tensions, and Institutional Flows
• Price Scenarios from Conservative to Aggressive

on May 8, the United States and the United Kingdom reached a new trade agreement, which is the first formal trade agreement he signed since the "reciprocal tariff" policy was launched on "Liberation Day". Under the agreement, the United States and the United Kingdom will partially withdraw tariffs in certain areas and significantly open up market access for both sides. Trump also hinted that it would be "the first of many agreements." The market interpreted this as a sign that global trade tensions, particularly tariff wars with China and Europe, could ease, boosting risk appetite across asset classes.

, cryptocurrencies are often seen as the same as other risky assets: they take a hit when uncertainty rises; When the market returns to clarity, they bounce back. Trump's statement "restored global risk appetite" that had previously been dampened by recent tariff threats and economic uncertainty.

The Fed's decision to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% has further heightened market optimism. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to "heightened uncertainty" over trade policy as one of the reasons for the pause in tightening, which was a dovish signal for markets. Lower borrowing costs and consistent liquidity tend to drive capital inflows into high-growth assets, including Bitcoin.

Pattern shows that Bitcoin has broken through the shallow falling wedge since April. By measuring the height of the wedge and adding it to the breakout point, it is possible to predict its first target price level of about $107,000. Driven by continued ETF inflows and trading optimism, subsequent gains in the price of Bitcoin could test $115,000 in the coming weeks.

, US spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing net inflows again, with weekly inflows expected to be $300 million to $400 million. Every dollar flowing into an ETF typically means a dollar less money available on the exchange, leading to a tightening of supply, which in turn supports the price.

for months. Trump's agreement with the UK and reports that tariffs could fall "within a few weeks" changed market sentiment. The market now believes that geopolitical risks are receding, which makes risky assets such as Bitcoin more attractive.

fuel to the fire is the fact that several U.S. states have begun to embrace the cryptocurrency. New Hampshire became the first state to allow up to 5% of its reserves to be invested in digital assets, which is supportive given Bitcoin's market cap threshold of up to $500 billion. Similar bills have been introduced in Texas and Arizona, indicating the growing recognition of Bitcoin by institutions, which has cemented Bitcoin's position as digital gold.

• Catalysts: Fed Clearly Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, UK Trade Deal Confirmation, Steady ETF Money Flows
• Path: BTC broke above $100,000 and then stalled around $105,000 as profit-taking pullbacks began.
• Duration: 2-4 weeks

• Catalysts: Multiple Trade Deal Announcements, Continued Institutional Inflows, Retail Investors 'Fear of Missing Out) Sentiment Rises Again
• Path: Successfully topped $100,000 to attract algorithmic buyers, pushing BTC above $120,000 to $130,000.
• Time: 1-2 months

• Catalysts: Fed surprise rate cuts, large corporate bond allocation, global regulatory clarity
• Path: Parabolic momentum pushes BTC towards $150,000, testing all-time highs.
• Time: 3-6 months

1. for Sell news pullbacks
   If Trump's promises fail – the deal is not well implemented or a small tariff adjustment – Bitcoin could retrace its initial gains.
2. The Fed's
   hawkish pivot to rate hikes in response to more stubborn inflation could weaken risk appetite.
3. Geopolitical shocks elsewhere, Middle East tensions, Russian sanctions – could prompt capital to return to safe havens like the dollar and gold.
4. A technical reversal
   that fails to hold the $90,000 support could trigger a stop-loss chain reaction that could bring BTC back down to $85,000

Bitcoin approaching $100,000 is not just a price story, it reflects a broader evolution:

• Digital Gold Narrative: BTC as fiat currencies fluctuate 's fixed supply and global reach make it an attractive inflation hedge.
• Institutional acceptance: ETFs, national reserve notes, and corporate Treasuries mark the growing legitimacy of the mainstream.
• Geopolitical diversification: As countries explore central bank digital currencies and decentralized finance, trade deal optimism now shares the stage with the digital sovereignty debate.

In this dynamic landscape, Bitcoin is both a speculative asset and a barometer of confidence in the global economy.

Bitcoin has crossed the $100,000 mark, which is closely watched by the market, and Trump's trade deal and the Fed's dovish stance have added new impetus to its rally. Whether Bitcoin can break the $110,000 mark in the coming weeks, or start a long-term sprint to $150,000, depends on factors such as technological breakthroughs, macro clarity, and institutional engagement. For beginners and experts alike, the key is to balance price targets and risk management: be clear about price targets, set clear stop-loss points, and keep an eye on important catalysts.