Including today, this is the 4th time BTC has challenged $117,000 (trading days); from the chip structure, we can clearly see that there are over 800,000 BTC accumulated in this narrow space of $117,000-$118,000; and $117,000 is also the price level with the highest number of chips, which we refer to as "the strongest one." Although it's hard to break through, it doesn't mean it can't be done. At least from the current repeated attempts, we can see that bullish sentiment is gathering. For me personally, I'm currently focusing on three data points: 1. Whether the net inflow of ETFs and spot exposure are synchronously expanding, indicating real spot buying from traditional funds; See specifics: 2. Whether the STH Realized Profit Distribution Index (STH-RPDZ) has shown significant deviation, indicating enhanced short-term momentum; See specifics: 3. Whether it can stand above 117,000 and pull back without breaking (based on daily closing), indicating that short-term...
Since September 11, all on-chain holders have been in a "neutral state," meaning there has been neither rapid distribution nor significant accumulation. During the period from August 29 to September 9, the whale group holding 1k-10k BTC still maintained a certain level of accumulation, but now they are gradually slowing down. (Figure 1) This neutral behavior also indicates that the current market sentiment is between optimism and anxiety, with more investors remaining cautiously observant. Historically, similar data has appeared many times when the market is at a turning point. For example, in January and April 2025 (marked by the dashed box in the figure), both experienced a pullback followed by a rebound while all holding groups were in a neutral state. The difference lies in the subsequent behavior of the whale group: After January, the whale group holding 100-1k BTC continued to distribute (marked 2), and BTC continued to retract and test the bottom after the rebound; after...
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