$CRCL conducted a shallow analysis of the short- to medium-term trends and several key points. 【Short-term】High U.S. Treasury yields maintained, expectations for legislation to take effect. Neutral to bullish: High coupon rates lock in high profits; policy catalyzes IPO sentiment, valuations have reflected some positive factors. (Interest rates are key) 【Medium-term】Implementation of legislation, Fed rate decline, expansion of merchant access. Divergence: narrowing interest spreads vs. increasing transaction fees, more competitors; market share ≥ 30% is a decisive factor. TLDR: Circle's stock is not a traditional "growth stock" or "financial stock," but rather a "U.S. Treasury coupon leverage stock": Rising interest rates, Float expansion → EPS amplification → P/E naturally compresses; Falling interest rates or market share erosion → EPS contraction → P/E passively increases, stock price pressure rises. Therefore, before looking at P/E, one must first examine T-Bill trends and USDC market share to discuss whether valuations are cheap or expensive. Analysis: Circle (CRCL)'s core profit driver relies almost entirely on the short-term U.S. Treasury yield spread earned from USDC reserves. The stock price is highly "elastic" due to the rising yield spread: in the current environment of approximately 5% T-Bills, the static P/E remains as high as ~170 times; if U.S. Treasury yields fall to 3%, assuming no growth in circulation and non-interest income, the P/E will passively rise to approximately 290 times. Therefore, to value Circle, one must incorporate interest rate paths, USDC circulation scale, and partner profit-sharing structures into scenario analysis, rather than looking at traditional P/E in isolation. Situation 1: FOMC rate cut / curve steepening 🔻Interest spread EPS downgrade → valuation inflation → stock price pressure Situation 2: USDC Float ≥ $80 B 🔺scale neutralizes interest spread decline, P/E falls Situation 3: Renegotiation of profit-sharing ⚖️ If Circle retains > 40%, EPS elasticity amplifies Moat and competition analysis: 1) Offshore stablecoins Tether USDT (circulation $155 B) Economies of scale, profits $13 billion / 24 years. Shortcomings: However, compliance audit pressure may require relocation or submission of reserve information. 2) FinTech stablecoins PayPal USD (PYUSD), Stripe-USDC direct charge. Built-in payment scenarios, large user base. Shortcomings: Need to obtain federal/state licenses, may not allow holding 100% U.S. Treasury bonds. 3) Bank tokenized deposits Visa VTAP, BBVA Pilot Deposit insurance, interest payable Shortcomings: Insufficient technology/blockchain interoperability 4) Decentralized solutions DAI, FRAX, etc. Trustless, flexible collateral Shortcomings: Regulatory exemptions tightening, transparency requirements 🗡️Differentiated competitive points: 1) Regulatory first mover: Proactively disclose weekly reserve audits, subject to dual constraints from SEC and public markets post-IPO. 2) Transparent reserve structure: Circle Reserve Fund, in collaboration with BlackRock, invests 100% in U.S. Treasuries & reverse repos, net value and duration are public. 3) Global payment API ecosystem: Interfaces with Visa, Stripe, Shopify, Remote, Bridge, etc., covering e-commerce, freelance payments, and card clearing. 4) Cross-chain composability: CCTP + smart contracts allow USDC to migrate across multiple chains without loss, supporting BlackRock BUIDL for instant redemption. #CRCL #interest_rate_sensitive #Stablecoin