Would it be bearish for Hyperliquid if Coinbase launched perps in the US tomorrow? How about Robinhood? Or Binance?
The core value prop of a perp DEX is here to stay:
- self-custody
- transparency
- no KYC
I'm not worried about Coinbase, they couldn't ship an NFT marketplace, just got around to 4 hour candles, & can't keep their customer data safe.
My bet would be on Robinhood or Binance winning the centralized perps market in the US. They've proven they can ship good gambling products.
But the chart of Hyperliquid's market share is basically up only.
If Hyperliquid is eating CEX market share in geos that already have access to perps on top cexes (Binance, Bybit, etc), why would it play out any differently in the US?
Hyperliquid could even win the centralized perps market too (bunch of KYC frontends coming to market, or a CEX will monetize Hyperliquid's deep liquidity with builder codes).
But the CEX -> DEX trend is clear so that probably wouldn't even make a different long-term.
I've placed my bets.
Winners keep winning.
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