I’m starting to think we’re heading into a recession or bear market, maybe a milder one, but it’s looking likely. The administration’s been dropping hints that their policies could lead us here, and since they’re elected, it’s their right to follow through on that vision. We should take it seriously. That said, I think it’s time to move away from the ‘buy the dip’ habit we’ve leaned on during the bull market. I’m not trying to sound alarmist or push some political angle, just observing that we likely already in a financial rough patch, or storm, that’ll stick around through a lot of 2025. It might not end up being a disaster, but focusing too much on potential gains could mean overlooking real risks. For me, that points to more dialing back on stocks. Gold could keep doing well, though silver likely not. Bonds seem like a good bet, capital has to flow somewhere, and they’ve been showing signs of bottoming out for a while. Bitcoin’s tricky, instinct says it struggles, but I can see it holding up as a kind of digital gold, especially since the administration seems to want it to succeed, outside of trade policy stuff. Maybe there is some bias in that last statement. Like I’ve mentioned lately, I’m leaning defensive. Sometimes it’s worth giving up big upside to stay more cushioned when/if things get crazy. Just some thoughts for today.