很多时候,事后经常会拍大腿,觉得这么明显的确定性机会,怎么会错过呢? 但真正身处其中就知道,再确定的机会(除了那少数万分之一的一上来就猛拉的币),都要经历Fud、洗盘等等折磨,让你怀疑自己判断。 比如 $IRIS ,几乎可以说是 Virtuals 和以太坊基金会官方下场攒的局,所以吸引了不少以太坊老钱的关注。这些老钱大概率是没有 Genesis 积分的,所以他们要参与就是纯接盘。按照120m跌到40m的现状,可以说这些接盘的所有人都是亏损的。 所以呢?这两家人搞一个大事,就是为了发一个币,来让以太坊上的人接盘么? 客观上你觉得不可能啊,大概率就是因为大盘的原因,顺势洗一下盘而已。但是作为 Genesis 选手,看着你的利润已经腰斩,你会没一点想法么? $IRIS 是确定性挺大,但是真的没有黑天鹅的可能性么?远的如 $EOS 、近的 $LUNA 、FTX,确定性不高么,现在在哪呢?甚至 $ETH 自己,几乎是区块链确定性最大的吧?这个牛市完全跑输了 $BTC ,更不要说 $SOL 。 说这些不是为了说明 $IRIS 没希望了,而是说明再有确定性的币,投资过程中也会充满各式各样的困难和怀疑。怎么办呢? 要么做个无情的交易机器,知道一开始要洗盘,一开始就坚决先卖了,到时候再接回来。要么休养一下自己的定性,看准的东西,过程中就不要胡思乱想,做好真亏了也是为自己的认知买单的心理建设。
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