Recently, I've been learning about trading and have been bothering a friend who does contracts every day~ So today, let's do a simple market analysis: Let's take a look at the ETH/BTC exchange rate. It has currently broken through a long-term descending channel, and the RSI has reached 83, which is in the overbought zone. In fact, back in mid-May, there was also a wave where the RSI entered the overbought zone, and after that, the exchange rate did not hit a new low. In simple terms, ETH has been performing well relative to BTC recently, breaking out of the downtrend channel, but the rapid rise feels a bit like "excessive heat" (overbought). However, thinking back to that time in May, after the "excessive heat," the price never dropped again, so this could also be a good signal, indicating that ETH might really be strengthening against BTC. Of course, a rapid rise could lead to a short-term pullback, but the overall trend looks better than before. From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, the resistance level at 0.236 has been broken, which was also a target that was not achieved in the previous wave. The next key level is 0.382, corresponding to an exchange rate around 0.033. In essence, it has finally broken through that small hurdle (0.236) that it couldn't surpass before. But this is just the first step; it will soon encounter a more important "BIG BOSS hurdle" (0.382, roughly around the exchange rate of 0.033). Whether it can break through this "BIG BOSS" is the key point that will determine if it can continue to rise significantly. Considering that BTC may experience a period of sideways movement recently, based on the current price, we can roughly calculate that ETH's next major resistance level will appear around 3900. Near this level, if there are long positions, one might consider taking partial profits, and also try to set a stop-loss for a short position. The ETH/BTC exchange rate often has other signal meanings: 1. What stage is the market in? Based on past experience, when the exchange rate is at its highest, the market is often in a crazy tail end. 2. The arrival of altcoin season? As the number one "altcoin," ETH's exchange rate relative to BTC is often an intuitive signal for the altcoin season. To borrow a quote from Churchill: This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. I believe the current market is just in a state of the end of the beginning. The chaotic end, the real beginning.