Matrixport Investment Research: BTC is not yet on the upside, or it may rise further in the summer
On May 12, BTC had rebounded to the upper end of its range ($106, 000), breaking through all-time highs or gradually entering the market's expected range as a number of positive catalysts emerged. The fading of phased downside risks has made the path for further upside clearer for prices.
Pressure on technology stocks eased, market sentiment rebounded
, and the first round of correction in the U.S. technology sector was mainly triggered by downward revisions to earnings expectations; However, with the concentrated disclosure of the first quarter of 2025 earnings report in April, the relevant pressure has eased significantly. At the same time, fears that tech giants are cutting spending on AI-related data centers have been dispelled, with several companies reaffirming their long-term commitment to AI infrastructure. The above statements boosted investor confidence, pushed stock prices back, and improved market sentiment.
Trump's policy may be a positive catalyst for the market, boosting market expectations that
Trump will shift his focus to announcing investment plans and cooperation agreements, further boosting the market's risk appetite for the stock market and BTC. The resumption of earnings disclosures and share buybacks confirms that the market has reversed from a downward trend to a bullish pattern. The possible continuation of Trump's tax cuts, coupled with the expectation of potential regulatory easing, will constitute a positive catalyst for the market, which is expected to further boost market expectations for economic growth. This could prompt the market to reprice growth expectations and recalibrate bond yields.
A number of positives overlap, risk assets are expected to enter a favorable trading window in July
,and risk assets, especially BTC, are expected to enter a favorable trading window by July. The timing coincides with the expiration of the 90-day tariff truce, the start of the Q2 earnings season, and the expected peak in liquidity metrics, with several key factors overlapping in time. Although this liquidity indicator has its own limitations, it may trigger a "self-fulfilling" expectation due to the market's widespread trust in its effectiveness. As more and more companies incorporate BTC into their financial reserves, the circulating supply in the market will be further reduced, potentially triggering an upward squeeze on the price of BTC. However, as the market enters the traditional summer trading off-season, this round of momentum may gradually slow down.
FTX's repayment is about to begin, and the inflow of stablecoins into the market may help the market resonate
Anotherimportant catalyst is FTX's upcoming debt repayment process. Accounts with more than $50,000 in repayment of claims are expected to be launched around May 30, 2025. The total size of the repayments is expected to be between $7 billion and $10 billion, which will be issued in the form of stablecoins, with a significant portion of the funds expected to flow back into the cryptoasset market. This new liquidity may boost market momentum in June, resonating with the continued inflows of BTC ETFs and the active performance of stablecoin trading.
Themarket's synergistic drive to keep BTC running at a high level may be related to the $100 billion total size of crypto companies' IPO promotion plans. Coinbase's recent inclusion in the S&P 500 index further reflects the growing interest in mainstream capital markets for crypto companies to be included in core equity indices.
Disclaimer: The market is risky, and you need to be cautious when investing. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.