GM A great interview of @punk6529 by @randomcdog - a must read thread 🧵
11/12 J: We can’t end the interview without a prediction question. Considering we’re at the beginning of crypto culture - and at the beginning of the end of fiat culture - what are your time horizons for NFTs and the tokenized art space to fully shine? 6529: When I first got involved with BTC in 2013, I told my friends and colleagues that it was going to be a 40-year societal-level project to rebuild all our value systems on crypto-based systems. Crypto is a shift like the internet was and it will take a similar amount of time for full adoption as the internet did. My view of NFTs, and their adoption curve, has remained the same since I started. They are 8-10 years behind BTC. By this logic, 2021 was the 2013 first BTC bubble and we are currently grinding through the long hard 2014-2016 BTC wilderness. I have consistently had 2030 as a first important checkpoint. By then, I would like us to get out of the ultra-tiny niche we are currently in, and be established and understood within the crypto space at least. To be specific, NFTs today have an aggregate market cap of about $10B (0.3% of crypto space). As a rough proxy for activity, attention and adoption, I would like to see NFTs-as-a-sector denominated in the hundreds of billions by 2030. By 2040, I would like to see them accepted and understood outside the crypto space and, in fact, ideally just become the hidden plumbing / infrastructure for non-fungible forms of value. Eventually, native and RWA NFTs are going to carry around more value than fungible coins (because world assets are largely non-fungible) but absolutely nobody is ready for that discussion yet, so for now we focus on the baby steps.
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