Many times, we often slap our thighs afterward, wondering how we could have missed such an obvious opportunity with certainty. But when you are truly in the situation, you realize that even the most certain opportunities (except for those rare coins that skyrocket right from the start) have to endure FUD, wash trading, and other torments that make you doubt your judgment. For example, $IRIS can almost be said to be a project organized by Virtuals and the Ethereum Foundation, which has attracted the attention of many old Ethereum investors. These old investors likely do not have Genesis points, so their participation is purely taking over. Given the current situation of dropping from 120 million to 40 million, it can be said that all these buyers are at a loss. So, what’s the point? Are these two families doing something big just to issue a coin for people on Ethereum to take over? Objectively, it seems impossible; it’s likely just a washout due to the overall market conditions. But as a Genesis player, watching your profits get cut in half, wouldn’t you have some thoughts? $IRIS has a high degree of certainty, but is there really no possibility of a black swan event? Looking back at $EOS, and more recently $LUNA and FTX, weren’t they also considered to have high certainty? Where are they now? Even $ETH itself, which is arguably the most certain in blockchain, has underperformed this bull market compared to $BTC, not to mention $SOL. I’m not saying that $IRIS has no hope; rather, I’m illustrating that even coins with certainty will be filled with various difficulties and doubts during the investment process. So what should we do? Either become a heartless trading machine, knowing that there will be a washout from the start, and resolutely sell first, then buy back later. Or take a break to stabilize your mindset, focus on what you believe in, and during the process, avoid overthinking, preparing mentally for the possibility of real losses as a way to pay for your own understanding.