As a shorter, if Bitcoin's bear market comes, I would like to summarize what must be done in advance. Of course, this is not a bear market. These predictions about Bitcoin are always wrong, and I am a person who shorts and does not know how to look at charts. However, the last Luna crash was near President Yoon's inauguration, but everyone seems to have forgotten about it, and since this presidential election will be held immediately without a takeover period, and anyway, it would be better to mention it in advance when the atmosphere is good, so I will write it down.
1. Study Bitcoin
- It is more difficult to study Bitcoin in a bear market than it is to study Bitcoin in a bull market. This is because it goes against human instinct. If you have realized a little but are still lacking in many ways, such as studying or funding, and you have not accumulated enough bitcoins for your own judgment, studying in a bear market will be more valuable to you.
2. Don't put your bitcoins on the exchange
- In a bear market, some exchanges will inevitably burst. FTX wasn't a weird job exchange. It was the world's second largest exchange after Binance, and if you don't believe in FTX, why do you use coins? There is a demand for virtual currency to be used in the underground economy, and there are forces that benefit from the explosion of exchanges for money laundering. I think domestic exchanges are natural and even Binance should not be trusted. Therefore, at the very least, cold walletts should be prepared in advance.
3. Beware of MSTR or mining owners
- MSTR is currently receiving a premium of around 2 times, but in a bear market, it can receive a reverse premium of about 30-40%. I don't know if it will happen again in the future, but it was the case in the last cycle. You may feel that the current MSTR premium is natural, but since Bitcoin ETFs have also come out, I think it is more likely that demand will be driven to Bitcoin spot or Bitcoin ETFs in a bear market. If you are not in the position of an institution such as the National Pension Service, which cannot buy coins, I don't know why individuals should buy MSTR.
- Be careful of mining stocks such as MARA, RIOT, CLSK, and HUT. Mining stocks that spend a lot of money on commissions, eat up offerings, and have mining costs can actually be seen as Bitcoin call options with no expiration. Many of these mining stocks are still far below the all-time high when Bitcoin breaks through 60-70k. If you judge it by matching the price of simple Bitcoin, you are likely to suffer a big loss. In particular, small mining stocks with a price of around $1 per share should be really careful.
4. Don't trust any altcoins
- Looking back, I think Luna/Terra's anchor pro rokol is ridiculous, but at the time, most people didn't think so. Along with the anticipation of the Kimchi stablecoin, there were many Lunars on Twitter at the time who had a magician-like photo on their profile. At the time, the Terra Foundation was about to stock up on Bitcoin as a strategic asset, and if it had stockpiled enough Bitcoin before being attacked, it might still be there. How many people predicted Luna's downfall? Tether, which everyone naturally believes in now, may have become stronger thanks to its current US short-term bonds, but there have always been pegging issues in bear markets. You should not believe any alt.
5. Keep in mind that you have to endure more than 4 years
- It seems easy to hold Bitcoin at any moment, but many old Bitmaxies have survived for 4 years. To become a Beat Maxi, you need at least four years of patience. If you started at the bottom of Bitcoin, you are likely to sell at the high, and then you have to wait until the next bottom, and if you bought at the high, you have to wait for the next high after the decline. The former seems to be good, but it is not necessarily the case because if you sell Bitcoin, you will be cursed with a quantity that is very difficult to collect again. I have to endure this time, but now I can't take a break, this is not an easy process at all.
If you think about it, Terra's peg was broken on May 9, 2022, the day before the presidential inauguration, and Luna crashed in earnest on May 10, the day of the inauguration, but at the time, I didn't think it was just a coincidence.
I don't know what kind of complicated events are intertwined, but there is no causal relationship. At a time when political unrest in Korea was at its highest, Kwon Do-hyung was extradited to the United States and the trial began, and this is not a mere coincidence.

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