For the past six months, there has been an illusion that the movements of $BNB and $BTC seem to be somewhat opposite, and this illusion is caused by sporadic memories when looking at prices. For example, when the price of BTC rises, BNB starts behind, and when BTC sometimes falls, BNB does not fall so hard.
However, the data will tell me that this is an illusion/illusion, and 3000 points were taken on the 1-hour price chart in three months, and the regression model was built at the same time, and the result was that the prices of BNB and BTC were highly fitted.
This is a rough regression equation, and time series are also used for multiple regression, and the results are very different.
BNB% = -1.20 + 1.33 × BTC% + 0.45 × BSC Volume + 0.18 × TVL - 1.80 × Regulatory Event - 0.04 × Fear & Greed Finger
Conclusion:
1. The BNB price is highly dependent on BTC (β₁=1.33);
2. Pay attention to the changes in the BSC ecosystem (trading volume, TVL), and BNB has additional upward momentum when the ecosystem is active;
3. Regulatory events and deteriorating market sentiment (increased fear) can depress BNB prices;
4. There is still room for $BNB the "Bhutan" model to become a sort of national reserve or into the portfolio of sovereign investment funds as CZ acts as an advisor to more and more sovereign states.
Data is sometimes the opposite of how people feel.
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