U.S. stocks Q1 GDP range and market reaction expectations I see that many friends are asking about GDP data today, I remember writing one before, and it seems that I can't find it, so I'll rewrite one. At 20:30 p.m. Beijing time on Wednesday night, the first quarter GDP of the United States was announced, and the market expectation was still 0.4% on Friday, and the market expectation has been reduced to 0.3% when looking at it today. I use my own judgment to say that it only represents a personal opinion, which may not be correct, and I must not defend my rights. 1. Very positive, this is very difficult, that is, more than or not less than the GDP of the fourth quarter of 2024, that is, the GDP data should not be less than 2.4%, as soon as such data is released, there is almost no need to consider the problem of the US recession, but the current expectations are not even a fraction of this. 2. More positive, if the GDP data can be above 1%, that is, the U.S. economy is maintaining a low rate of growth, although there is a big gap compared with the previous value, but it can also make the market believe that the United States has the possibility of a soft landing, and this low rate of growth will not even drive inflationary pressure. 3. Slightly positive, if the GDP data is less than 1%, but greater than or equal to market expectations, then although the optimism of the US economy is low, it can be regarded as a low-speed growth range, but investors may not have enough confidence in a soft landing, and tariffs are still needed to regulate sentiment. 4. Long and short game, if the GDP data is lower than expected, but still greater than zero, is a positive number, although it is not good for the market's sentiment, but has not yet entered a pessimistic state, if Trump implements a new policy or the Federal Reserve takes an early interest rate cut, the market's sentiment will still help. 5. Bearish, if the GDP data is below zero, it must be lower than expected, but above -1%, then the market is likely to start to enter the trading recession, which is not good news for investors, for example, if the US stock market falls today, then it is likely that investors will make a risk-off move. In this case, it is indeed possible that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June to try to stifle the recession. 6. Significantly bearish, the higher the negative value, the greater the blow to market sentiment, the more it will make investors panic, unless the White House or the Federal Reserve comes out to appease the market, otherwise the market may have increased expectations of recession, in which case the Fed is likely to directly enter the interest rate cut link, to make up for the loss. PS: At present, GDPNow gives a data of -2.5%, this data is last Thursday, and it will be updated in the early morning of Wednesday Beijing time, in this version, even the import of gold in the United States in the first quarter GDP forecast is -0.4%. All of the above is my personal opinion, not necessarily correct, not necessarily that I think the market will fall sharply if it is bearish, everything depends on the reaction of the market, and there is no need to question the final GDP data, whether it is high or low, it is not something we can change, as long as the Fed and the White House believe it, it can. This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN|Dex With ApeX