Bitcoin continues to hit all-time highs, but it's getting harder for retail investors to make money
Article source: Words Li Huawai
Summer vacation life continues, yesterday against the scorching heat and was taken out by a small pot friend to go out for a walk, shopping and playing this kind of thing does feel more tired than writing articles, so last night I slept relatively deeply, I didn't even know that it rained heavily at night in Beijing, and I got up in the morning to see that the roads in many places were flooded through the videos sent by others. However, compared to the extreme weather, the overall performance of the market in the past two days seems to be okay, Bitcoin once again hit an all-time high of $112,040, and the discussion in the group is a little more lively than the previous days. This is shown in the figure below.
At the same time, some altcoins also performed well, with many coins rising by more than 10% in a single day, as shown in the chart below.
Year-to-date, it seems like a long time since many people on the Internet shouted that the bear market has been shouting, but Bitcoin has always let these people down by hitting new highs again and again.
In the previous article, we mentioned a speculation: in the last year, Bitcoin seems to be entering a structural redistribution process, with early whales starting to pull out, and some medium-sized players such as institutions/funds starting to take over and gradually build positions. In the short term, the sell-off of giant whales may suppress the price of the stage market, but as long as medium-sized players can continue to complete the accumulation, then in the medium and long term, the market is still worth looking forward to. It's just that in this game of human wealth migration, it is still retail investors who may be hurt more in the end.
Of course, the above forecast is only a prediction of the possible price action in the next 1,458 days based on the price action of the past 1,458 days, and the results are not necessarily accurate. As we mentioned in our previous article, the price of the market is determined by a combination of macro, policy, supply and demand, sentiment and other dimensions, and the accuracy of such predictions mainly depends on whether the next behavior of bitcoin can perfectly repeat the historical cycle.
However, the market is always changing, but human nature is often difficult to change. Although there may be a lot of unknowns in the future we are facing, if you still believe that Bitcoin has a future, then it is still the same sentence from our earlier article: if your goal is 10 or 20 years in the future, then it is not expensive for you to buy Bitcoin now.
Everyone's understanding of cycles is different, some people see 1–2 months as a cycle, some people see 4–5 years as a cycle, and those who are more ruthless may see 10–20 years as a cycle. For making money, some people value the current price, while some people value the law of the cycle.
If we simply recall the law of the existing crypto cycle:
the big bull market in 2017 was mainly due to the hype of ICO, when retail investors had the opportunity to obtain relatively large returns as long as they participated in a small investment, of course, this kind of return and risk are also proportional, at that time, it gave people the feeling that there were "thousands" of projects together through ICO to raise funds, and some people became rich overnight. There were also people who stepped on the thunder and zeroed in (at that time, a large number of air and scam projects also used ICOs to raise funds). For example, the ICO price of BNB was $0.11 and the ICO price of EOS was $1. A brief look at the historical data shows that there were about 2,300 well-documented ICO projects in 2017, and only about 5% have survived so far, leaving 95% of the projects either disappeared or became zeroed out projects or zombie coins.
The big bull market in 2021 is mainly due to the influx of funds (the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the Federal Reserve's large-scale interest rate cut + quantitative easing), and it is also a bull market in which institutions begin to enter the market (with Musk and Tesla as the main representatives), and it is also a bull market with the most crypto innovation, we have not only experienced the L1 public chain war, but also experienced the golden moment of various innovative narratives such as DeFi, NFT, GameFi, and the metaverse, At that time, the prices of many projects were pushed to all-time highs, especially in the craziest stage of the bull market, and it is no exaggeration to say that it feels like you can make money by buying with your eyes closed in OK or BN, and that bull market is estimated to be the time when many people start to run into the market and officially get in touch with cryptocurrency.
With the success of the ETF compliance process, the inflow of macro funds (traditional funds), and the hype of auxiliary narratives such as AI and RWA, Bitcoin successfully broke through the historic integer mark of $100,000, setting a milestone, coupled with the announcement of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Program in the United States, as well as various bills for cryptocurrencies/ Policies continue to advance, so to speak, this round of bull market seems to have become a key stage for cryptocurrencies to officially move from marginal assets to mainstream integration.
In fact, if we look back at the past few bull markets, it is easy to see that with the deepening of large players (represented by countries and institutions), this market seems to be becoming more and more unfriendly to retail investors (in short, it is becoming more and more difficult for ordinary retail investors to make money), but from another point of view, it seems to be a sign that a new market is beginning to mature.
Especially since 2025, major institutional investors continue to accelerate their hoarding of Bitcoin, and the regulations/laws that are being introduced or planned in the United States seem to be accelerating the global adoption of cryptocurrencies, such as the "GENIUS Act" and "The CLARITY Act" mentioned in our previous article, which are likely to become a direct catalyst for trillions of dollars of market liquidity in the long run.
This is the worst of times, but also the best of times, as far as the current crypto market as a whole is concerned, the infrastructure has tended to be relatively complete after years of construction, and the regulation of the crypto market (mainly in the United States) is becoming more and more clear, the previous cryptocurrencies were niche and retail, the current cryptocurrencies are institutional, and the future cryptocurrencies will be global in nature. As ordinary retail investors, we need to have the courage to break through the cauldron and sink the boat, the failures and successes of the past ten years have only allowed us to see a window, and we may see a door in the future, so that we can go out, maybe we will continue to see a different wide world.
Lu Xun said: There is no road on the ground, and when there are more people walking, it becomes a road. In fact, the development law of any market is basically the same, the road of cryptocurrency is a little bit by the early believers out of the way, the original cryptocurrency is just a kind of thing called "geek toy" and "Ponzi scheme", although the ICO boom in 2017 contributed to the transformation of cryptocurrency from the beginning of the bubble to the paradigm, but it is still seen by many people as "worthless" and "air scam" things, but over time, mainstream finance has now begun to slowly embrace cryptocurrency.
In short, believe in it, hold it, and add an extra life bet to your future. If you don't believe in it, just stay away from it and continue to do what you think is right or choose at the moment. Ultimately, everyone is responsible for their own choices, and everyone is only responsible for their own choices.
Many people look at $110,000 of bitcoin and miss $1 of bitcoin (in January 2011, the price of bitcoin exceeded $1 for the first time), so they hope to find the next bitcoin-like rich item, but no one can predict what the next fortune will be, what we can do is to seize the current opportunity first (if you also think that the price of bitcoin will reach $1 million in 10 years), and at the same time take a longer term view and be prepared. Always keep yourself open-minded.
As far as trading is concerned, for some people it is investment, but for others it is just speculation, but in the final analysis, there are really only two things we have to do, namely: how much money we can make when we are right, and how much we can lose when we are wrong. For example, since the current bull market, many people have watched Bitcoin rise from less than $20,000 to $110,000 now, so they sigh why they didn't buy Bitcoin in the first place, and why do they have so little Bitcoin in their hands now...... At the same time, he also sighed, why did he keep increasing his position even after losing money on a certain cottage, and why did he listen to others' words and resign from FOMO Tugou, which led to the ...... of zero investment
If we summarize this situation, it can be roughly divided into two aspects: on the one hand, it is difficult to form large-scale investment or continuous investment in the face of "certain" trading opportunities, for example, they will think that Bitcoin will rise, but it was already $20,000 at that time, and the increase is relatively limited, which cannot bring them greater income opportunities. On the one hand, in the face of "uncertain" trading opportunities, they will bet relatively large, believing that their theories must be correct, and their cognition or technology will definitely beat the market and bring huge benefits.
As far as I am concerned, I mainly think about doing those "certain" transactions, because although the potential benefits of "uncertain" opportunities are huge, the risks are also huge, and such transactions are difficult to fully grasp through one or some fixed skills or skills (at most it can only increase the probability), but deterministic transactions can be continuously improved and optimized through certain methods.
Investing may seem like a very simple thing, just buying at the bottom and selling high, but it is actually very difficult to make the right investment (i.e., the two things we mentioned above), and you need to find a balance between your own investment theory and market changes.
Therefore, all these years of investment experience have only taught me one of the most important things, which is to be very strict in your position management (risk management), especially never to be too obsessed with those losing trades, no matter what your strategy or theory is, remember that the market is always right.
And as long as the market is still there, then, we will not lack trading opportunities, what we have to do is to continue to stick to it and not be eliminated by the market. If you don't manage your positions well enough or don't discipline enough, and you lose (or get trapped) most of your portfolio money, then we don't have enough money to take advantage of new or even better opportunities.
Therefore, clarifying one's risk tolerance is a very important part of investing, and we need to deeply understand: how much money can be made when it is right, and how much money can be lost when it is wrong. Over the years, I have seen too many examples, and I have met a lot of people who have more money and are more powerful in terms of technology and other aspects than myself, but many people have left the field because of losses, but I still persist. Looking back on the past few years, especially in the first few years when I first entered this field, I have also done a lot of trading, and I have suffered many losses, but from the actual results, most of the profits are actually only obtained in a few trading (BTC, ETH) categories, which is why I have always adhered to that sentence: stay focused, keep thinking, and stay patient. At the same time, I also put this sentence in the signature of the official account, I hope to continue to encourage you
~Let's talk about these today, the source of the pictures/data cited in the text has been added to the words Li Huawai Notion, the above content is only a personal perspective and analysis, only for learning records and exchanges, and does not constitute any investment advice.