本人心中的行情剧本1 11月至明年3月的阶段性低点应该就是在9W左右 很多人觉得扩表就代表大量的流动性预期,我觉得太片面。 历史就是最好的教科书,扩表分主动刺激经济和技术性的维持金融稳定,只满足市场短期对现金的需求。 主动刺激经济参考08年和2020年,QE带来的大牛市 技术性维稳扩表参考2019年,只是为了短期维持金融市场的稳定性 其实跟主动降息和防御式降息的逻辑也差不多 我觉得这次扩表的行为和2019年的目的是一致的,并不会直接开启QE 所以,从11月到明年3月之间比特币破新高去15万美金难如登天。 但震荡弱势反弹期间,应该有一波MEME行情,大概率是在过年前后。
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