Let me share my personal views:
1. Based on Mike's continuous buying at this position, I believe the price of Bitcoin is still far from its peak. If we consider the period around interest rate cuts, I would conservatively guess it could reach 140,000;
2. Since institutions have entered the market on a large scale, the price movement of Bitcoin has changed. We see small pullbacks followed by large surges, and we are currently in a long-term bullish trend. However, upon observation, we can see that as the price of Bitcoin rises, the magnitude of each surge after a pullback is gradually weakening. The reason is simple: the price is higher, and more capital is needed for the surges, so the increments will become smaller;
3. I believe that when the pullback exceeds 30%, it will signal the end of the overall Bitcoin bull market;
4. As for altcoins, over 90% will go to zero because 99.99% of the altcoins in the crypto space are scams. As the market matures and players become more sophisticated, these scams will no longer deceive people, leading them to zero. The remaining ones will either be genuinely meaningful new altcoins or older altcoins that have become meaningful. For example, if UNI activates its dividend switch, it becomes meaningful; if it doesn't, it's just a worthless token;
5. However, before altcoins go to zero, it won't prevent a collective surge when liquidity is truly abundant. I can't imagine a scenario where all coins soar, but it will be similar to the period from October 2023 to March 2024.
Simply expressing a personal opinion, the liquidity in the entire crypto space is currently quite fragmented, and the liquidity supporting Bitcoin's price to continue rising is very weak.
Before the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the top for Bitcoin should be around the current range of 110,000. After the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, I feel the price range will be around 120,000 to 130,000.
I believe this round of the crypto bull market cycle is nearing its end, but Bitcoin will not experience a significant level of correction like in past cycles.
More so, Bitcoin will fluctuate alongside the movements of gold and the U.S. stock market. Right now, Bitcoin is in another stage of consensus building (whether it is a safe-haven asset or a risk asset). Once a new consensus is established, Bitcoin may not follow a four-year cycle anymore.
Another point to bring up is the altcoin season. My personal investment style is quite cautious, and I will not buy altcoins. If I had to argue whether there is an altcoin season, using the metaphor of seeking a sword in a boat, I believe that if there were a scenario where altcoins are flying together, it would not happen.
Currently, the altcoin market feels more like the ST stocks in the A-share market; institutions will not buy them and are not allowed to buy them. There are a massive number of token projects, and those with a bit of conscience will pull together for self-rescue, while those without conscience will directly dump their chips.
57
69.98K
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.