BTCcore hastened to a hard fork with BTCetf
Yesterday was a historic moment
The Senate passed the Payment Stablecoin Act 63-37 – the world's first national-level regulatory framework for stablecoins.
The short-term impact is limited, but the long-term narrative could be the biggest boost to BTC price growth of 5-10x. Let the currency circle have its own Fed central bank attributes.
Immediate Benefits:
1 Compliance of fiat currency channels (banks can directly issue stablecoins)
2 Clear custody rules for RWA asset issuance
3 U.S. Treasuries will become core reserve assets (the bill requires 100% reserves)
Short-term effects
1 Rising Stablecoin Issuance Costs (Banking System Compliance Fees Eat Profits)
2 USDC may surpass USDT (compliance advantage amplified)
3 On-chain TVL growth may slow down (short-term liquidity siphon effect)
The long-term narrative transmission is huge
Stablecoin issuers may become the largest buyers of Treasury bonds in the future
When the scale of the stablecoin exceeds 3 trillion (now 160 billion), a triple restructuring will be triggered:
1 U.S. Treasury Liquidity Restructuring: If the stablecoin holds 5% of U.S. Treasury bonds (currently 0.6%), it is equivalent to Japan's holdings
2 Monetary policy transmission reconstruction: the crypto market may become a "parallel interest rate system"
3 Restructuring of Economic Governance: The Game of DAO Treasury vs Sovereign Debt
Make a crazy but quantifiable hypothesis:
When the market capitalization of BTC reaches 10 trillion (now 1.2 trillion, which means that BTC will grow 5-10 times):
1 Institutional-collateralized BTC borrowed stablecoin → minting amount + $300 billion (at 30% collateral ratio)
2 Stablecoin issuers buy U.S. bonds → Lower 10-year interest rates by 15-25bps (according to the IMF bond flow model)
3 The low interest rate environment stimulates BTC as a deflationary asset premium → enter the next cycle
For the model to be established, it must meet the following requirements:
1 No black swan de-anchoring event (refer to the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank USDC crisis)
2. BTC volatility drops to gold level (now 80% vs 15% gold), and when the BTC price increases by 5-10 times, the volatility will naturally decrease significantly
The ultimate form: When the "DeFi central bank" has $10 trillion in liquidity, their U.S. Treasury trading orders may affect the FOMC's decision-making - this may be the real path for Satoshi Nakamoto's "censorship-resistant financial system".
We are witnessing a currency war 2.0
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