Just had my months wrong, otherwise playing out perfectly. 🤷‍♂️
Narrative is lagging indicator reflecting what just happened, not what will happen next. If you are chasing it, you risk chasing something you already missed — right at the moment it’s about to flip. A Hypothetical Typical cycle structure holds, meaning majors rip in Feb and March. Solana’s historic unlocks hit at the exact wrong moment — it lags and ppl rotate. TRUMP marks the local top of meme mania — nothing can top it — the weakness of being dependent on one type of activity is exposed and declining toplines add more fuel to the fire. Meanwhile, less regulatory overhead means growth is coming increasingly from institutional use cases and capital flowing in. Payments, RWAs, tokenization of everything — the stuff that is going to need the credibly neutral infrastructure of ETH. L2 continue to rapidly decentralize and become more interoperable. The scaling roadmap begins to show real fruit. Coinbase evolve into a next gen bank and exchange build on @base and DeFi rails — bringing millions of customers onchain. Suddenly the vibes are very good in ETH land and Solana land rife with recriminations and infighting. Will this happen? I have no idea, but if you want to have any sort of hope of getting ahead of things you need to think through these types of counterfactuals. You need to look at leading indicators and not just get sucked into panicking over lagging ones. “Skate to where the puck is going.”
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