IS THE 4-YEAR CYCLE DEAD, OR IS IT ALL ABOUT LIQUIDITY?
The traditional 4-year crypto cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings looks like it is becoming irrelevant.
Historically, the cycle included:
👉 Bear market
👉 Accumulation phase
👉 Bull market
👉 Euphoria phase
This Cycle is Different
- One year post-halving, no clear bull market has emerged.
- Bitcoin has risen, but altcoins have lagged significantly.
- The rise is driven by institutional money and ETFs, which don’t impact altcoins like retail flows did in the past.
Liquidity is the real play
- The key factor now is liquidity, not time-based cycles.
- Global liquidity is surging, hitting all-time highs (ATHs).
- $5.5 billion added this year alone; projected $12B total for the year (~10% increase).
What am I expecting?
- This liquidity needs to flow, and Bitcoin and crypto are top destinations.
- Historically, Bitcoin price follows global liquidity (M2) with a 10–12 week lag
- If liquidity continues rising, expect strong market impacts, regardless of outdated cycle models.
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