Why can't altcoins go up? 》 In essence, the more people buy, the more coins can rise; If there are more people selling, the coin will fall. Therefore, from the perspective of funds, we can see a lot of things, but not only that there are too many projects in the currency circle and too little funds, I try to study it from multiple dimensions, compared with the previous two rounds of bull market, and study it: why not the general rise, can it still rise in the future? I will discuss the following perspectives from two dimensions: the target, the environment, the capital, and the player. 1. About the subject matter 1. The fundamentals change little In the three rounds of bull market, does the underlying fundamentals change greatly? In essence, the gameplay has changed a lot, but the innovation is actually not big. Even TRX in 2017 took care of payment, 20-year-old AAVE stood firm in lending, and this round of pumpfun turned out to be a blockchain Pvp. On top of these benchmark projects, there are very few highlight projects and innovative projects in this round, and projects like Polymarket are not even issued coins. So there is very little real innovation at the bottom, but from the perspective of asset issuance, everyone "innovates" a lot of things, such as inscriptions, aiagent, cats, dogs, hippos, memes, and so on. 2. The structure changes greatly The beginning of this round of bull market is probably the beginning of the crazy pulling of Binance on TIA, why was it able to take it at that time? Because the currency was issued early, and then the bull market sentiment just returned, the funds were rushing together, and the market makers were very high. At that time, there were similar WLDs, in fact, the chip structure was very poor, and a large number of them were to be released, but there were not many "high-quality targets" (that is, narratives that everyone agreed) that could be rushed in the market, so market makers could also easily "allocate thousands of dollars". However, through UNLOCK, we can know that the unlocking of VC coins that are intensively unlocked online is quite terrifying, such as in May last year, the highest month unlocked in my impression reached $5 billion. $5 billion is unlocked in a month, and the unlock must be smashed, which is a very large amount - compared to 19 years, Binance's last IEO project opened with a market value of tens of millions, and projects like MATIC were also launched with a low market capitalization. That is, the coins unlocked in one month in this round are 100 times the market value of the 100 major projects listed on Binance in the 19-year and 20-year bull market. At that time, I researched and found that this round of VC coin unlocking was intensive in 24 or 25 years, and the selling pressure continued every month. 3. The number varies greatly This number may be difficult to count, but if it is said that in 17 years, everyone's attention is still focused on the junk coins brought by Li Xiaolai and Bao Erye; At present, everyone is already bringing goods, and the number of coins issued by PumpFun's family is already 100 times 1000 times that of the past two rounds of bull markets. The number of VC coins is also huge, so much so that Binance can't go up, because it can't be connected and speculated. 2. Environment 17, 20 years in the early stage, is still in the mainstream stage, the market in despair fell a lot, in doubt rose in doubt, there is no shortage of increments in the currency circle, as soon as it rises, there are newcomers and stupid money coming in. The more fools there are in a market, the more opportunities there are to make money (and lose money quickly). This round has entered the mainstream, and the number of users in the currency circle has also reached a considerable scale, and the "stinky coin speculator" has also been promoted to "distinguished U.S. stock traders". In contrast, the currency circle looks more lofty, and institutions are buying, buying, buying, but the disadvantage is that the currency circle is gradually transitioning from the past incremental market to the stock market, and there are fewer and fewer new entrants - Trump will be the peak in the next one or two years or even longer. The next step in the currency circle is to get more people, either through pay payment, etc., to change the payment method of people who do not speculate in coins; Either through the enhancement of consensus, such as the inclusion of national reserves, etc., more and more countries will be allocated as strategic reserves, and Bitcoin will become a target similar to gold. But in these environments, there is gradually no room for shitcoins. 3. Funding The scale of stablecoins in the cryptocurrency circle has actually continued to hit new highs, reaching more than $200 billion, which is similar to the 21-year high and much more than the 17-year bull market. But considering the 100-fold, 1000-fold growth of the project mentioned above, these funds are not so impressive. Especially now that funding is no longer rushing around – more projects will inevitably encourage people to be more cautious. 4. Players The player base has also changed dramatically. The 17-year-old market gives people the feeling of ignorance, fanaticism, and joy, everyone is rushing in with the dream of speculating on coins and the ideal of the blockchain, and they don't know anything. But most people are still in a daze, because it is an incremental market, there are always whites who enter later than you, and become fuel. In 20 years, everyone felt that it was the year of landing, and DeFi and NFT were regarded as the redeeming innovation of the blockchain, which was both proud, excited and fanatical. In the past 25 years, everyone who makes money and those who don't make money want to scold people, and they have begun to reach a consensus in the market that "the pattern is SB" and "be a scumbag", more and more people realize or feel that the current currency circle is a big casino, a new currency is a new gambling table, and there are only a handful of valuable projects. It's better to be a researcher than a gambler. To sum up, the view of the copycat season, I think it depends on how to define, if you think the copycat will not rise, I don't think there will be a general rise, but the skyrocketing of individual coins will always happen - the new way of playing in the casino will always have its own gamblers. But if you define the altcat season as the ascension of most altcoins, then I think there is no play, and the target, funds, emotions, and users are no longer allowed. *** So what's next? What are the opportunities to get rich? One is meme Daikin. MEME used to be a rich artifact, but it is difficult at the current stage, there are fewer people who break 10 million market value, and some people will shout Golden Dog if they reach 3 million, and the total return of watching the show or buying the main currency such as SOL may be higher than the next game, but continue to observe and wait until the Golden Dog is online is the best. I would think that there will definitely be a new model, and I am not worried that the casino will not come up with a new model. Second, BTC rose sharply. The small target of BTC200,000 will be reached, but the possibility of going up directly is very small, and some borrowing is needed, for example, the US stock market will perform very well next year, and the market will be full of hot money, which may get more help. But for me, if I hope to double it, I will leave the market first and leave the profit. The third is the opportunity of the stock market. In fact, there are indeed many opportunities in the stock market, for example, Xiaomi rose all the way from 15 to more than 50 when the currency circle was in such a downturn; and the Bubble Mart I didn't buy is more than 10 times a year, and it has risen inhumanely; There are also Pinduoduo in the US stocks, with 10,000 or 20,000 employees, and their profits are higher than those of JD.com, Taobao and even Douyin, but the stock price has been limited. So I feel that there are fewer and fewer opportunities in the currency circle, and I personally have spent a lot of energy in the stock market, training myself to become an all-rounder, and occasionally sharing some in the group. However, many of the group members are still honing their meme skills, and even the next opportunity to get rich - I believe it will come. I wish everyone who reads the post can make a lot of money in the currency circle, become a giant whale, and travel in the global asset market!