GM, Lately, a few people have been asking me: “Is the old altcoin cash flow cycle we’ve used in past seasons… still valid this time?” It’s a familiar question but I’m no longer sure the answer is as simple as it used to be. So let’s look at the current setup: ▫️ BTC dominance is peaking ▫️ ETH is holding its range lows ▫️ Others/BTC is back at -79% ▫️ Retail? Still missing The real question is: Is this the same pre-altseason pattern we’ve seen before or are we mid-shift into a new capital rotation structure no one’s ready for? Let’s break it down. 🧵 1⃣ The old playbook: BTC → Majors → Others We’ve seen this pattern repeat like clockwork: – BTC rallies into new highs → dominance spikes – Majors (ETH, SOL, XRP) lag at first – Mid and low caps get crushed, then explode… but only at the end That’s how it worked in 2017, 2021 and so far, it’s playing out again. Look at the charts: → Others/BTC hit -79% in the first leg of the bull (again) → ALT/BTC pairs bottomed right as BTC started its second leg → BTC.D historically tops out right now, during the consolidation before the final thrust 2⃣ But this cycle feels harder and for a reason Here’s what’s different this time: – 44+ projects waiting for TGE on Kaito (avg 2-4 months delay) – Many of these unlock in 2025, large, coordinated VC unlock waves – $1.1B of token unlocks coming next week alone (TRUMP, FTN, etc.) – Netflows are concentrated in ETH, HYPE, Hyperliquid, Arbitrum This is not the broad-based liquidity rotation we saw in DeFi Summer or Q1 2021. Instead, we’re seeing local altseasons within isolated ecosystems, not a full market-wide wave yet. So if you’re holding random altcoins waiting for them to just catch up, you might be waiting forever. 3⃣ The Ethereum signal ETH is quietly telling the story before the others. ETH/USD just reclaimed the range low, retested, and is pushing into the midrange. ETH/BTC is showing early signs of a potential macro bottom, just like 2020. In previous cycles, this was the precise inflection point before altcoins outperformed: – Bitcoin starts second leg – ETH catches up – Retail rotates to high beta alts It’s not confirmed yet, but it’s close. 4⃣ The structure risk: What if we supercycle? There’s a real risk that this cycle breaks the pattern. If Bitcoin breaks out above the historical diminishing return resistance line, the same one that capped each past cycle, then dominance might never drop the same way again. That would mean: – No clean altseason rotation – Dominance keeps rising with BTC as a macro asset – Only a few select alts perform, not the whole market Do I think that’s the base case? No. But it’s a growing probability and it changes how I manage risk. 5⃣ So what’s the play? Here’s how I’m thinking about it: – Yes, the classic altseason structure is lining up – But, there’s way more dilution, more noise, and slower rotation – The best setups are: low unlock supply + strong communities + narrative clarity Examples that fit the mold right now: – HYPE (structure, narrative, no heavy unlocks) – KAITO (InfoFi traction) – ETH (range structure + dominance pivot) – SEI, XRP, AAVE (chart + macro inflection) The rest is probably just going to bleed unless something shifts. 6⃣ Final thought: Altseason won’t come gift-wrapped There won’t be a clear tweet saying It’s altseason now Like last cycle, it’ll sneak up on you after max pain, max boredom, and max disbelief. But if you track the structure not the hype, the signals are starting to rhyme. We’re close, just don’t confuse a rotation window with a free-for-all. And always know where you are in the cycle.