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Federal Reserve July Decision: Don’t Bet on the Outcome, Watch the Wording At 2 AM Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Will they cut rates? The market has basically priced in: Most likely no change. What really moves the market isn’t the interest rate number. It’s how a few words in the statement are changed. Three key areas: 1. What is said about inflation If it remains: Inflation remains elevated → Market interprets this as hawkish, rate cut expectations remain on hold. If changed to: Inflation is making further progress → Dovish, the market will start pricing in a September rate cut early. 2. What is said about employment If it continues: Labor market remains strong → Neutral. If changed to: Labor market is moving toward balance → Market will see this as the Fed starting to focus on employment risks. 3. Dual mandate risks The most critical question now: What is the Fed more worried about? Inflation? Or employment? If inflation risk is emphasized: → Hawkish. If employment pressure is emphasized: → Dovish. My personal view: The statement may show a slight dovish tilt. But Powell’s speech likely won’t directly confirm a September rate cut. More likely: wording leaves room, verbal tone remains cautious. How about $BTC? If dovish: Dollar and US Treasury yields ease. Risk assets may rebound. BTC focus: 66-67K range. If neutral: Market continues to wait for data. BTC likely: consolidating and digesting. If unexpectedly hawkish: Risk assets will come under pressure first. BTC key support: around 63K. Don’t take sides prematurely. Wait for the 2 AM statement to see the first wave of money voting.