#ADPCoolsFedSplit

🚨 BREAKING !!! U.S. ADP JOBS DATA MASSIVELY MISSES EXPECTATIONS, GOLD BREAKS $4,200 🇺🇸📉 • Labor Market Cooling 📊: U.S. private payrolls added only 44,000 jobs in July, severely missing the 70,000 forecast and dropping sharply from June's 98,000. • Wage Inflation Spike 💸: Despite weak hiring, wage growth for job changers surged to 7%—the largest jump since August 2025. Pay for those staying in jobs held steady at 4.4%. • Dollar Pressured 💵: The unexpectedly weak employment data is heavily bearish for the US Dollar, signaling economic slowdown risks. • Gold Explodes 🥇: Driven by the weak jobs report and sticky wage inflation, spot gold surged 3.02% today, officially smashing past the historic $4,200/oz level. $XAU $BTC $ETH

JUST OUT: U.S. ADP employment payrolls rose by just 44,000 in July, missing the 70,000 forecast and slowing sharply from 98,000 in June. The weak print strengthens the case for Fed rate cuts, but also raises concerns that the labor market is losing momentum. That could initially support stocks and crypto through lower yields, though recession fears may limit gains. $ADA

Employment in the private sector slowed to a “choppy” rate in July, according to data published Wednesday by the payroll processing firm ADP, after surveyors warned of a “slowdown” in new jobs across the labor market. Read more: Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

GOLDMAN STICKS TO PAYROLL FORECAST GOLDMAN SACHS MAINTAINED ITS 75,000 JULY NONFARM PAYROLL FORECAST DESPITE A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED ADP REPORT SHOWING JUST 44,000 PRIVATE-SECTOR JOBS WERE ADDED. THE BANK SAID ADP HAS HAD A WEAK CORRELATION WITH OFFICIAL PAYROLL DATA IN RECENT YEARS AND THEREFORE CARRIES LIMITED WEIGHT. GOLDMAN'S FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE 80,000 CONSENSUS ESTIMATE AHEAD OF FRIDAY'S US JOBS REPORT. ...

GOLDMAN STICKS TO PAYROLL FORECAST Goldman Sachs maintained its 75,000 July nonfarm payroll forecast despite a weaker-than-expected ADP report showing just 44,000 private-sector jobs were added. The bank said ADP has had a weak correlation with official payroll data in recent years and therefore carries limited weight. Goldman's forecast remains below the 80,000 consensus estimate ahead of Friday's US jobs report.

BREAKING: US private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, well below the 68,000 expected and down from 98,000 in June.

US private payrolls rose 44,000 in July after a revised 95,000 increase in the prior month as companies added fewer jobs than expected, according to ADP Research data out Wednesday. Michael McKee reports

🚨BREAKING🚨 U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling. • ADP employment spikes by 44,000 in July • Below market expectations of 70,000 • Previous reading: 98,000 Another soft jobs print keeps Federal rate-cut expectations in focus.

AI Morning Event Summary: AI tape stays bid, but post-earnings leadership is splitting $SPY is about $775, +0.5% pre-market. $QQQ is about $725, +0.2%. $SOXX is about $534, -1.5%. The broad tape is still taking lower oil and easier yields as a risk-on input, but AI leadership is splitting after last night's earnings. ADP reported private payrolls rose 44K in July, below the roughly 68K-75K premarket range cited in market coverage. The next macro check is ISM Services at 9:00am CT. The 10Y yield is around 4.62%, the dollar index is about 99.8, and WTI is around $76 after Tuesday's oil break. $ANET is extending on a beat and guide-up, while $AMD and $SPCX are lower even after headline beats because the market is still trading margin durability, capex, and FCF quality. $SPCX is about $112, -10.5% pre-market. SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81B, +92% y/y. Connectivity revenue was $4.29B, AI revenue was $2.56B, and Space revenue was $962M. The stock is still trading the August 6 lockup, AI spend quality, and the path from backlog and cloud agreements into cleaner cash generation. $AMD is about $476, -8.3% pre-market. AMD reported Q2 revenue of $11.5B, Data Center revenue of $6.7B, and guided Q3 revenue to about $13.0B +/- $0.3B with non-GAAP gross margin at 56%. The stock is down because the beat and raise did not settle the gross-margin and 2H acceleration debate. $ANET is about $212, +11.1% pre-market. Arista reported Q2 revenue of $3.036B, non-GAAP EPS of $1.02, non-GAAP operating margin of 49.9%, and Q3 revenue of about $3.3B. Networking is the cleaner AI infra lane this morning because the revenue beat and margin profile both moved higher. $NVDA is about $215, +1.6% pre-market. Nvidia is taking the cleaner side of the compute tape while $AMD resets lower. If that spread holds after the open, the market is still paying for the highest-confidence AI revenue and margin path. $SNDK is about $1,409, -1.3% pre-market, and $WDC is about $544, -0.9%. Storage is quiet into tonight's earnings after Tuesday's rebound. NAND pricing, enterprise SSD demand, and margin capture are the next tape check for $SNDK, $WDC, and $MU. Wall St one-liners $SPCX: Wells Fargo trimmed its PT to $215 from $230 after lifting 2026-27 AI capex assumptions -> Street revenue can move up while the tape still trades FCF duration. $WDC / $SNDK: Morgan Stanley stayed constructive into tonight's prints -> NAND pricing and storage demand are the next test for whether memory can keep yesterday's rebound. 3 key tech headlines Google is in talks on a possible $1.5B+ Mechanize talent and licensing deal -> coding-agent competition is still pulling hyperscaler dollars toward applied AI product velocity. Google will begin removing Assistant from Android and Wear OS on September 4 and replace it with Gemini -> consumer Gemini distribution becomes more explicit ahead of the fall device cycle. Reuters reported larger European tech groups including SAP, Capgemini, Sopra Steria, and OVHcloud are seeing stronger AI demand -> enterprise deployment is broadening beyond model builders and GPU suppliers. What to watch - 9:00am CT ISM Services PMI for July. June was 54.0. Rates, dollar, and high-duration AI names can move if new orders or prices paid re-accelerate. - $WDC and $SNDK report after the close. NAND pricing, enterprise SSD demand, and FY27 margin commentary are the key semi checks. - Friday's July payrolls report. The ADP miss keeps labor in focus after a softer private-hiring print. - Fed Governor Lisa Cook is scheduled to speak this afternoon. Any policy signal can matter because the tape is still sensitive to yields after the July FOMC hold. - Watch whether $ANET can hold double-digit pre-market gains while $AMD and $SPCX stay red. If networking leads and compute lags, AI investors are still rewarding revenue quality over raw capex. source: ADP / ISM release calendar / company releases / Reuters / Techmeme-reported item / Wall St note