المنشور

S&P 500 Sets Another Record High: Selling Now to Wait for a Pullback Could Be August’s Biggest Mistake Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Q3 · Issue 93 Aspirin – A Data Scientist’s Perspective on Cyclical Analysis The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 7,736.52, gaining 1.8% on the day and approximately 13% year-to-date. Despite the strong rally, I neither chased the upside nor reduced my core index exposure. While the possibility of a second-half correction remains, even a meaningful pullback could still leave the index trading above current levels. Bitcoin continues to consolidate around $64.4K. For now, I’m keeping fresh capital in reserve for a potential S&P correction and have only two BTC contract alerts in place at $63.5K and $69.2K. A 10% Correction Doesn't Guarantee a Better Buying Opportunity Many investors assume a 10% market correction automatically creates an attractive entry point. In reality, the math often tells a different story. If the S&P rallies 12% from current levels before declining 10%, it would still finish at roughly 7,798—about 0.8% above today's close. Even a scenario where the index rises 8% before dropping 10% would bring it to around 7,520, only 2.8% below current levels. Simply waiting for a pullback isn't a complete investment strategy. Investors who exit the market must correctly identify the peak, anticipate when the correction begins, and execute a timely re-entry. During strong bull markets, record highs often attract momentum capital, and premature bearish positions are frequently squeezed before any meaningful correction unfolds. Midterm Election Years Often See Late-Summer Volatility The last three U.S. midterm election years shared a similar seasonal pattern: 2014: The market peaked around September 19, corrected roughly 10%, and bottomed in mid-October. 2018: Weakness emerged around September 21, leading to an approximately 20% decline that extended into December. #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck